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04-BS-2 · May 2015

Question 4 of 8

Nivaar worked solution (AI-drafted; not reviewed by a licensed engineer)

Notes on this paper

National Examinations, 04-BS-2 Probability and Statistics — May 2015. Closed book (approved calculator + one hand-written information sheet); statistical tables of the Normal, t, chi-square and F distributions supplied. The paper states that only 5 of the 8 questions constitute a complete paper — every question is solved in full as a study resource.

Reference texts: Walpole, Myers, Myers & Ye, Probability & Statistics for Engineers and Scientists (9th ed.) — sampling distributions, binomial/Poisson/hypergeometric models, confidence intervals, hypothesis testing, correlation and simple linear regression.

Question 4 (20 marks)

Question text not reproduced: the examination questions are © Engineers and Geoscientists BC. Open the official past paper (linked at the top of this page) to read the question, then follow the worked solution below.

Given. 3×3 contingency table of observed member counts by Age Bracket (row) × Insurance Policy (column):

Given data — observed counts
Age bracketPolicy APolicy BPolicy CRow total
25–40385770165
41–56687062200
Over 56743368175
Column total180160200540

Find. Whether Insurance Policy preference is independent of Age Bracket, at $\alpha=0.05$.

Approach. Chi-square test of independence: compute expected counts under independence $E_{ij}=(\text{row}_i)(\text{col}_j)/n$, form $\chi^2=\sum(O-E)^2/E$, and compare to the critical value with $(r-1)(c-1)$ degrees of freedom.

  1. State the hypotheses. $H_0$: Insurance Policy preference is independent of Age Bracket. $H_1$: they are not independent.
  2. Compute the expected counts. $E_{ij}=\dfrac{\text{row total}_i\times\text{column total}_j}{540}$, e.g. $E_{11}=\dfrac{165\times180}{540}=55.0$.
    Expected counts under $H_0$
    Policy APolicy BPolicy C
    25–4055.0048.8961.11
    41–5666.6759.2674.07
    Over 5658.3351.8564.81
  3. Compute the test statistic. Degrees of freedom $=(3-1)(3-1)=4$. $$\chi^2=\sum_{i,j}\frac{(O_{ij}-E_{ij})^2}{E_{ij}}=\boxed{23.05}$$
  4. Compare and conclude. Critical value $\chi^2_{0.05,4}=9.488$. Since $23.05 > 9.488$, reject $H_0$ at $\alpha=0.05$: there is significant evidence that Insurance Policy preference is NOT independent of Age Bracket — preference varies systematically with age (notably: Policy A is favoured disproportionately by the Over-56 group, Policy B by the 25–40 group).
Question 4 — final results
QuantityValue
$\chi^2$ statistic23.05
df4
Critical value $\chi^2_{0.05,4}$9.488
ConclusionReject $H_0$ — policy and age bracket are dependent