23-CS-4 Engineering Management · December 2016
Nivaar worked solution (AI-drafted; not reviewed by a licensed engineer)
Question text not reproduced: the examination questions are © Engineers and Geoscientists BC. Open the official past paper (linked at the top of this page) to read the question, then follow the worked solution below.
The Fishbone diagram, developed by Kaoru Ishikawa, is a structured tool for identifying and organizing the potential causes of a problem or risk. The "effect" (the risk under study) is placed at the head of the fish on the right, and a horizontal "spine" runs toward it; major categories of cause branch off the spine as large "bones," and specific potential causes branch off each category as smaller bones. Its use in risk analysis is to force a comprehensive, systematic search for the sources of risk across all relevant categories, preventing the team from fixating on a single obvious cause and helping trace a risk to its root. It is typically populated in a brainstorming session and often combined with the Five Whys to drill from a category down to the fundamental cause.
Categories typically used to identify risk causes are the "6Ms": People (Manpower), Methods, Machines, Materials, Measurement, and Environment (Milieu). In service or project contexts the categories are often adapted to the "4Ps" (Policies, Procedures, People, Plant) or to project dimensions such as scope, schedule, cost, technical, and external risk.
An influence diagram is a compact graphical representation of a decision problem under uncertainty. Its purpose in risk analysis is to show, at a glance, how decisions, uncertain events, and outcomes are related—which uncertainties influence which outcomes, and which decisions affect which uncertainties—so that the structure of the risk is understood before it is quantified. It uses three node types: decision nodes (rectangles) for choices the manager controls, chance/uncertainty nodes (ovals) for uncertain events, and value/outcome nodes (rounded rectangles or diamonds) for the result. Arrows show influence and information flow. It complements the fishbone: the fishbone finds the causes, while the influence diagram models how those uncertain causes and our decisions combine to drive the outcome.
A risk management plan documents how risk will be handled throughout an initiative. Its key elements are: risk identification (a register of the risks that could affect the project); risk assessment/analysis that rates each risk by probability and impact, both qualitatively and, where warranted, quantitatively; risk prioritization to focus on the most significant risks; a defined risk response strategy for each—avoid, mitigate, transfer, or accept—with contingency and, where needed, fallback plans; assignment of risk ownership and responsibilities; allocation of contingency reserves of time and money; and ongoing monitoring, review, and communication so the register stays current and new risks are captured. The plan is a living document revisited throughout the project life cycle.
Before launching a new pump product, the engineering team would brainstorm a fishbone to surface risk causes across the 6Ms—finding, for example, a materials risk in a single-source casting supplier—then build an influence diagram linking the sourcing decision and uncertain supplier lead time to the launch outcome. The risk plan would rate that risk high, assign an owner, and mitigate it by qualifying a second supplier and holding a safety-stock reserve.
