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24-MMP-A4 Mine Valuation and Mineral Resource Estimation · May 2018

Question 3 of 23: Mine Valuation – Market Conditions for Copper

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Notes on this paper

EGBC National Exam — Mining and Mineral Processing Engineering, 09-MMP-A4 Mine Valuation and Mineral Resource Estimation, 2018-May. 3 hours duration; closed book, with one handwritten 8.5×11 in. reference sheet (both sides) permitted; only an approved Sharp or Casio calculator allowed. Question 1 is compulsory (40 marks, parts 1.1–1.9); candidates then select THREE of the five optional Questions 2–6 (20 marks each) to complete the paper.

Reference texts: Isaaks & Srivastava, An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics (variogram modelling, kriging estimators); Hustrulid, Kuchta & Martin, Open Pit Mine Planning and Design (mine valuation, cut-off grade theory, incremental analysis); Gentry & O'Neil, Mine Investment Analysis (Canadian mining taxation, cash flow/risk, smelter contract terms, NSV/NSR); SME Mining Engineering Handbook, 3rd ed. (ore deposit models, mineral exploration/evaluation stages, equipment utilization); O'Hara, T.A., “Quick Guides to the Evaluation of Orebodies,” CIM Bulletin, Feb. 1980 (parametric capital-cost estimating); CIM Definition Standards for Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves / National Instrument 43-101 (resource/reserve classification and reporting).

Question 1.3: Mine Valuation – Market Conditions for Copper (4.44 marks)

Question text not reproduced: the examination questions are © Engineers and Geoscientists BC. Open the official past paper (linked at the top of this page) to read the question, then follow the worked solution below.

To a buyer, seller or the equity market, the value of a mineral resource is a function of contained metal (tonnes × grade), the fraction of that metal actually recoverable and payable, the cost to mine and process it relative to the metal price, the deposit's stage of technical/permitting maturity, and country/political risk — capitalized through a discounted-cash-flow or, for early-stage resources, a market-comparable (EV per contained pound, EV per NAV) approach. Market conditions layer on top of this technical value: copper demand is driven structurally by electrification (grid infrastructure, EV motors and wiring — a battery-electric vehicle uses roughly 3–4× the copper of an internal-combustion vehicle), construction and industrial production, with China historically the dominant marginal consumer; supply is constrained by a long project-development lead time (often a decade from discovery to production), declining average head grades at existing mines, geopolitical concentration of primary supply (Chile, Peru, DRC), and the growing contribution of secondary (scrap/recycled) supply. Price discovery occurs on the LME and COMEX, with visible exchange inventories, producer/consumer hedging positions and speculative/fund positioning all moving price around the underlying supply-demand balance. A buyer or seller therefore prices a copper resource against BOTH its own cost structure and the prevailing consensus view of this multi-year supply-demand balance, not against a single point-in-time spot price.