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24-Pet-B3 Petroleum Geology · December 2015

Question 15 of 22

Nivaar worked solution (AI-drafted; not reviewed by a licensed engineer)

Notes on this paper

National Exams, December 2015 — 98-Pet-B3, Oil and Gas Evaluation and Economics (3 hours, closed book, approved non-programmable calculator only). The exam's own cover page is titled "Oil and Gas Evaluation and Economics" and every question is property valuation / reserves & production economics / DCF-NPV screening content — no geology anywhere.

Reference texts: Thompson & Wright, Oil Property Evaluation; Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (COGEH), Vol. 1 (Society of Petroleum Evaluation Engineers, Calgary Chapter); National Instrument 51-101, Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (Canadian Securities Administrators); SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS); Ahmed, Reservoir Engineering Handbook.

The exam's own instructions ask for only 7 of the 10 short-answer questions and note the Cash-Flow/Future-Value tables are graded by column; for "choose N of M" exams, every item below is answered in full as a study resource. Questions 1–10 correspond to the exam's printed Short-Answer items 1–10; Questions 11–20 correspond to the printed Multiple-Choice items 1–10; Question 21 is the Future Value table; Question 22 is the Cash Flow table.

Question 15

Question text not reproduced: the examination questions are © Engineers and Geoscientists BC. Open the official past paper (linked at the top of this page) to read the question, then follow the worked solution below.

  1. a. Not required to prioritize projects
  2. b. Detailed financial information is too proprietary to share widely
  3. c. Oil and gas prices are changing too quickly
  4. d. Very difficult to get agreement on future economic environment ← correct
  5. e. All of the above

Answer: (d). The practical obstacle is reaching organizational consensus on long-run macro assumptions (future inflation, exchange rates, tax regime) that are inherently uncertain decades out — companies increasingly favour simpler, standardized screening metrics (real, constant-dollar hurdle-rate/payback screens, like the ones used elsewhere in this exam) precisely because they sidestep needing agreement on an unknowable future economic environment, rather than because that information is unimportant.